Trends in mortality rates from coronary heart disease in Belgrade (Serbia) during the period 1990–2010: a joinpoint regression analysis

BACKGROUND Coronary heart disease (CHD) causes an estimated 7 million deaths worldwide each year. In the last few decades, mortality from CHD has been decreasing in many countries. The aim of this study was to analyze the trends of mortality from CHD and myocardial infarction (MI) in the population of Belgrade during the period 1990-2010. METHODS Mortality data for CHD and MI were obtained from the Municipal Institute of Statistics in Belgrade and used to calculate age- and sex-specific and age-adjusted mortality rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate annual percent changes (APCs) in mortality and to identify points in time where significant changes in trend occur. RESULTS Trends in CHD mortality rates showed significant decline in men during the period studied (APC -0.5%, no joinpoints detected), but no significant change among women (APC +0.4%, no joinpoints detected). While we observed significant declines in CHD mortality in men aged 35-44, 55-64 and 65-74 and women aged 55-64, there was a significant increase in mortality in men aged ≥85 and women aged 75-84 and ≥85. Trends in MI mortality rates showed similar patterns in both genders, with a significant decline from the mid-1990s. Significant decline in MI mortality was observed in almost all age groups, except the two oldest (75-84 and ≥85) in women population. CONCLUSIONS Given that CHD and MI mortality trends showed different patterns during the period studied, especially in women, our results imply that further observation of trend is needed.